Ko te whānui o te whakamahinga o te hanga maitai i roto i te oumu pewa hiko (EAF) ka akiaki tonu i te tipu o te hiahia mō ngā irahiko karāhe, me ngā mea matua e ahu mai ana i te mahi tahi o te aratohu kaupapa here, te whanaketanga hangarau, me te hiahia o te mākete. Ko te tātaritanga motuhake e whai ake nei:
I. Ngā Mana Whakahaere Kaupapahere: Mā te Pikinga o te Wāhanga Hanga Rino o EAF ka Whakawhanui Tika i te Pūtake Tono mō ngā Irahiko Karāpiti
1. Kaupapahere Whakakapinga Pūmanawa a Haina i raro i ngā Whāinga "Waro Rua"
Kei te whakamahere a Haina ki te whakapiki i te ōwehenga o te hanga maitai EAF mai i te 10% o nāianei ki te 15%-20% i te tau 2025, he kaupapa here ka whakapiki tika i te hiahia mō ngā hiko karāhe. Hei tauira, me te hiahia matapae mō ngā hiko karāhe i roto i te hanga maitai EAF ka eke ki te 860,000 tana i te tau 2025, e tohu ana i te pikinga tau-ki-te-tau tata ki te 10%, ka whānui ake te pikinga o te hiahia mena ka piki te ōwehenga ki te 20%.
2. Te Hokinga Mai o te Tono Rino o te Ao me ngā Pēhanga Taiao
E matapaetia ana ka piki ake te hiahia mō te maitai o te ao mā te 1.2% ki te 1.772 piriona tāne i te tau 2025. I te taha o ngā paerewa taiao o te ao pērā i te tikanga whakatikatika rohe waro a te EU (CBAM), kei te anga whakamua te hanga maitai tuku iho i roto i te oumu pupuhi (me te 60%-70% teitei ake o ngā tukunga waro i ngā EAF) ki te pēhanga kia whakamutua, ā, ka noho ko te whakamahinga whānui o te hanga maitai EAF hei ia o te ao.
II. Ngā Whakatairanga Hangarau: Ngā Irahiko Karāwhite Mana Tino-Teitei hei Rauemi Matua mō te Whakapai Ake i te Whai Huatanga EAF
1. Ngā Whakaritenga Mahi Pakari mō ngā Irahiko Karāpiti i roto i ngā Tukanga EAF
Ko ngā irahiko karāhe mana tino teitei (UHP), e tohuhia ana e te ātete iti (≤6 μΩ·m) me te kaha piko teitei (≥15 MPa), he mea nui mō te whakarei ake i te whai huatanga o te EAF. I te pikinga ake o te mana pewa, ka hiahiatia e ngā tukanga whakarewa ngā irahiko karāhe he ātete pai ki te waikura me te ātete ki te ru wera, e akiaki ana i te tipu o te hiahia mō ngā hua kounga teitei.
2. Te Kukū o te Mākete ki ngā Hua Tino Pai
Hei te tau 2025, e matapaetia ana ka neke atu te utu o ngā hiko UHP i te RMB 18,000 ia tana, ā, ka piki ake te wāhi mākete ki te neke atu i te 60% o te katoa o te tono. Kua mau i ngā kamupene matua (hei tauira, a Fangda Carbon me Graftech) te tūranga matua i roto i te mākete teitei mā roto i ngā mana whakahaere hangarau, i te mea kei te wehe atu ngā umanga iti me te rahi waenga (SME) nā runga i ngā pēhanga taiao me te utu, ka hua ake te pikinga o te kukū o te ahumahi i waenga i ngā kaitākaro matua.
III. Ngā Ārahi o te Hiahia Mākete: Te Whakamahinga Pūmau i roto i te Hanga Rino EAF me te Whanuitanga ki ngā Rāngai Puta Ake
1. Ngā Āhuatanga Whakapaunga Pakari o te Hanga Rino EAF
E tata ana ki te 1.5-2.5 kg o ngā irahiko karāpeti e pau ana i te hanga maitai EAF mō ia tana o te maitai, e whakaatu ana i te pakari nui o te tono. Ahakoa kua heke te whakamahinga o ngā tana mai i te 3.5 kg ki te 1.2 kg nā te whakamahinga nui o ngā EAF (hei tauira, ngā oumu pewa hiko i runga ake i te 100T) me te arotau i te tukanga whakarewa, kei te tipu tonu te tono whānui me te whakawhānui ake i te kaha.
2. Te Pikinga o te Hiahia mai i ngā Rāngai Hou
- Rāngai Pūngao Hou: Ko te hanga rauemi anode pākahiko lithium-ion e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā hua karāpeti. E matapaetia ana ka eke te putanga rauemi anode o te ao ki te 2.625 miriona tana i te tau 2025, me Haina neke atu i te 98%, e akiaki ana i te tono mō te tukatuka karāpeti hiko karāpeti.
- Rāngai Ārahi-Haumaru: Ka whakamahia ngā irahiko karāti tino tika i roto i ngā oumu tipu tioata me ngā taputapu whakairo, me neke atu i te 99.999% te taumata parakore. Ko te tipu haere o te tono mō ngā maramara 5G me te AI kei te akiaki i te tere tipu ā-tau neke atu i te 15%.
- Te Hanganga o te Silicon me te Phosphorus Kōwhai Ahumahi: E hiahia ana te ahumahi matū ki ngā irahiko he tino pumau, he roa hoki te ora, ko te nuinga o ngā irahiko karāpiti te mea nui.
IV. Ngā Wero me ngā Whakautu a te Ahumahi: Ngā Whakarerekētanga Hanganga i waenganui i ngā Pēhanga Utu me ngā Here Taiao
1. Te Piki Ake o ngā Utu Rauemi Mata
I te tīmatanga o te tau 2025, i roto i te haurua o te marama, ka piki ake ngā utu o te ngira kōka mā te RMB 5,500 ia tana ki te RMB 32,000 ia tana, ā, i te mea ko ngā utu mō te kōka hinu iti-whāwhā i neke atu i te RMB 7,300 ia tana, he pikinga 57% ia tau. Kei te whakaitihia e ngā kamupene ngā utu mā te whakawhanake i ngā āheinga whakaputa ngira kōka o roto (hei tauira, mā te whakauru poutū), e whakaatu ana i te painga whakataetae o ngā umanga matua.
2. Ngā Kaupapahere Taiao e Whakatairanga ana i te Whakahoutanga o te Pūmanawa
Nā ngā here taiao i ngā rohe pēnei i a Hebei me Henan kua iti haere te tuku rauemi i ia wā, ā, nā te nui o te whakapaunga pūngao o ngā tukanga whakakāwhata kua whakawhāiti i te whānui o te kaha. Me whakatū e ngā kamupene he pūnaha "whakaputa-whakaora-whakahoutanga" porowhita kati kia tutuki ai ngā paerewa taiao o te ao pēnei i te EU CBAM.
Whakamutunga: Te Whakamahinga o te Hanga Rino EAF hei Mīhini Matua mō te Tipu o te Tono mō te Irahiko Karāpiti
Mā te whakakotahitanga o ngā mana kaupapa here, ngā whanaketanga hangarau, me te tono a te mākete, ka haere tonu te whakamahinga whānui o te hanga maitai EAF ki te akiaki i te tipu o te tono hiko karāhe. Ahakoa ngā wero pēnei i te pikinga o ngā utu rauemi mata me ngā here taiao, kei te whakakotahi te umanga i te arorau tipu tono mā te whakatōpūtanga teitei (hei tauira, ngā hiko UHP), te mātauranga (hei tauira, ngā hangarau māhanga matihiko), me ngā whakawhiti matomato (hei tauira, ngā pūnaha porowhita kati). I te tirohanga whakamua, ko ngā umanga matua me ngā rahui hangarau me ngā kaha whakauru poutū ka whakahaere i te whenua mākete, ko ngā mahi tahi whakawhiti-rāngai (hei tauira, te R&D tahi i waenga i ngā pākahiko karāhe me ngā hiko) ka noho hei putanga matua mō te wikitoria i ngā arai tipu.
Wā tuku: 20-Ākuhata-2025