He aha ngā āhuatanga matua e pā ana ki ngā piki me ngā heke o te utu o te kōka hinu kua whakapūkaratia i te mākete?

Ngā Take Matua e Pā Ana ki ngā Hurihuri Utu i roto i te Mākete Coke Hinu Whakapūkara

I. Te taha tono: Te whānui ake o ngā ahumahi o raro me te putanga mai o ngā rāngai hou

  1. Te Hiahia mai i ngā Ahumahi Irahiko Konumohe Hiko me te Graphite
    Ko te kōka hinu whakakāwhata he rauemi matua mō ngā anode kua tunua i mua i roto i te umanga konumohe hikohiko, ā, he rauemi matua hoki i roto i te hanga hikohiko karāwhata. Ka pā tika ngā piki me ngā heke o te kaha konumohe hikohiko ki te tono:

    • 2017–2018: Nā te pikinga ake o te hanga maitai mō te oumu pewa hiko i piki ake ai te tono mō ngā irahiko karāhe, me te pikinga tere o ngā utu mō te kōka hinu mai i te RMB 1,200/tēne ki te neke atu i te RMB 7,000/tēne.
    • 2024: Nā ngā here tukunga waro i akiaki ētahi umanga konumohe hikohiko ki te whakaiti i te hanga, i whakaitihia ai te tono mō te kōka hinu, ā, i pēhia ai hoki ngā utu.
    • Rāngai rokiroki pūngao pākahiko: Nā te pikinga ake o te hiahia mō ngā hiko karāpeti i piki ake ai ngā utu o te kōka hinu.
  2. Te tipu nui o te hiahia mō ngā rauemi anode mō te pākahiko lithium
    • 2024: I eke te tono ā-ao mō ngā rauemi anode pākahiko lithium ki te 2.2 miriona tana, e hiahiatia ana neke atu i te 3 miriona tana o te coke hinu, engari ko te tuku tuturu i te 2.6 miriona tana anake, e hanga ana i te āputa tuku 13%.
    • 2025: I whakamahere ngā umanga rauemi anode o Haina kia neke atu i te 5 miriona tana o te kaha (he nui atu i te tono o te ao o te 3.5 miriona tana), ka kaha ake te whakataetae mō ngā rauemi mata, ā, ka tata ki te RMB 6,000/tana ngā utu kōka hinu iti-whanariki, he pikinga 150% mai i te tīmatanga o te tau 2023.
  3. Te Pikinga o te Hiahia o te Ahumahi Photovoltaic
    • 2024: Kua piki ake te hiahia o te ao mō te coke hinu kounga photovoltaic mā te 35%, ā, e whakataetae ana ngā kaihanga rauemi silicon (hei tauira, Tongwei, GCL) mō ngā rauemi coke iti-whanariki, ā, ka piki ake ngā utu.

II. Taha Tuku: Te Whakaiti i te Pūmanawa me ngā Whakararuraru o te Mekameka Tuku

  1. Te Whakaiti i te Kaha Whakamahi Hinu
    • Ngā Kaupapa Here "Waro Rua" o te Ao: Nā te tere o te whakamutu i te kaha whakamahine tawhito i Ūropi me te US i heke ai te kaha whakamahine o Ūropi mā te 8% i ia tau, me te 12% te aukati i waenga i ngā kaihanga hinu shale o US i te tau 2024, ā, i tino whakaitihia ai te tuku kōka hinu iti-whāwhā.
    • Te kati o ngā whare whakarewa hinu Hainamana: I te Hui-tanguru 2025, i panuitia e ngā whare whakarewa hinu motuhake o Shandong (Guangrao, Rizhao, Zibo) te kati o ā rātou mahi tiaki mutunga kore, ā, ka whakawhāiti ake te tuku mai i te mākete.
  2. Te Whakataurite Taonga me te Kohikohi Taonga a te Kaihokohoko
    • Te kohi taonga a ngā kaihokohoko: I te tau 2024, i kohia e ngā kaihokohoko ngā taonga teitei rawa atu, ā, i whakaitihia ngā taonga o te tauranga o te motu mai i te 2 miriona tana i te tau 2023 ki te 800,000 tana, ka hangaia he "korenga rūpahu".
    • Te whakawhirinaki ki ngā kawemai: I kawemai a Haina i te kōka he nui te whanariki mai i Rūhia me Venezuela, mā te whakamahi i ngā tukanga tango whanariki hei whakamama i ngā pēhanga tuku, ahakoa i piki ake ngā utu mā te 5%.
  3. Ngā Taupatupatu Ā-Iwi me ngā Ārai Tauhokohoko
    • Ngā here kaweake a te US ki Haina mō te karāpeti: I akiakihia ngā umanga rauemi anode Hainamana ki te whakawhirinaki ki te coke hinu ā-rohe, ā, i kaha ake ai te pēhanga tono ā-roto.
    • Te tuku utu hinu mata: I te tau 2024, i eke ngā utu hinu o te ao ki runga i te USD 120/peera, ā, ka whakaitihia ngā tawhē whakamahine, ka akiaki hoki i ngā kaihanga whakamahine ki te whakaiti i te whakaputanga, ka nui ake te korenga o te kōka hinu.

III. Ngā Kaupapa Here me ngā Ture Taiao: Te Pikinga o ngā Utu me te Whakakapinga Hangarau

  1. Ngā Kaupapahere Taiao Tino Kaha
    • Te pikinga ake o te tono mō te kōke hinu iti-whāriki: I kitea he nui ake te tono mō te kōke hinu iti-whāriki (he iti te ihirangi whāriki <0.5%) i te kōke nui-whāriki nā te tutuki i ngā paerewa taiao, ā, i whānui ake ai te rerekētanga utu.
    • Te pikinga o ngā utu whakaputa: Nā te pikinga o ngā utu tutuki i ngā whakaritenga taiao mō ngā kaihanga hinu kōka i piki ake ai ngā utu.
  2. Te Riri o te Whakakapinga Hangarau
    • Te pikinga ake o ngā anode e hangai ana ki te silicon: Nā te hanga papatipu a Tesla i ngā pākahiko 4680 me ngā anode silicon-waro i whakapai ake i te kiato pūngao mā te 20%. Mā te roa o te utu nui o te hinu coke ka tere ake te ia o tēnei whakakapinga.
    • Te aranga anō o te karāpeti taiao: Ko te karāpeti taiao kua whakarerekētia te mata (hei tauira, ngā paninga nano-silicon carbide) i eke ki te roanga o te huringa neke atu i te 2,000 huringa me te utu iti iho i te 30% i te karāpeti hangai, ā, i whakakapia ai te hiahia mō te petroleum coke.

IV. Ngā kare ā-roto o te mākete me te whakaaroaro mō te pūtea

  1. Te Wehenga o ngā Tikanga Tuku Utu
    • Te pēhanga utu o raro: I tono ngā umanga pākahiko lithium matua o Haina kia whakahekehia te utu o ngā rauemi anode ki te 15%, ka tapahia te tawhē moni a ngā kaihanga coke hinu kua whakakāwhatia mai i te 35% ki te 8%.
    • Ngā wā utu kua roa ake: Kua roa ake ngā huringa nama nama mai i te 90 ki te 180 rā, ā, kua piki ake te mōrearea rere moni mō ngā umanga iti me te rahi-waenga.
  2. Ngā Mirumiru Pūmanawa me te Whakakotahitanga Ahumahi
    • Te kukū o te mākete: I kite te CR5 (ngā umanga e rima o runga) i te pikinga o te wahanga mākete mai i te 70% ki te 85%, ā, i puta atu ngā umanga o muri i te nuinga o te wā.
    • Te whakataetae ā-ao: I tere ake te hoko a ngā kamupene Hapanihi me Kōrea ki te Tonga (hei tauira, POSCO Chemical) i ngā kaihanga tuarua o Haina hei hopu i te toenga o te wāhanga mākete.

V. Tirohanga ā-Mārama: Taurite Tuku-Tono me ngā Pūwāhi Hurihanga Utu

  1. Ngā Pēhanga Whakararo
    • 2H 2025: E matapaetia ana ka whakawhāitihia te āputa i waenga i te tuku kōka iti-whāwhā ki te 5% mā te kaha whakamahine hou i te Middle East me Īnia.
  2. Ngā Mōrearea o te Pikinga
    • Hinu mata i runga ake i te USD 150/peera: Mā te iti o te whakamahinga o ngā whare whakapai hinu mō te wā roa ka piki ake te utu o te kōka hinu ki te RMB 8,000/tana.
  3. Ngā Huringa Mahere Hangarau
    • Te karāpeti hangai: Ka heke te wāhi mākete mai i te 80% ki te 60%, ka noho tonu koia te huarahi matua.
    • Karāpeti taiao: Ka piki te rahinga mai i te 15% ki te 25%, mā te whakamahi i ngā painga utu.
    • Waro mārō/hāngai-hāngai: Ka piki ake te tohatoha mai i te 5% ki te 15%, ka huaki i te wāhanga tipu tuarua.

Wā tuku: Hepetema-16-2025