Ko te take matua e tere haere ana ngā kaihanga pākahiko o runga ki te hoko i te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia, ko tōna tūranga hei rauemi mata matua mō ngā rauemi anode, he mea nui ki te whakarei ake i te mahi a te pākahiko, te whakaiti i ngā utu, me te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia o te umanga pūngao hou. E toru ngā taha e whakahaerehia ana te tātaritanga e whai ake nei: te hangarau, te mākete, me te umanga.
I. Ahu Hangarau: Ko te Coke Hinu Whakairoiro te "Pūtake" o ngā Rauemi Anode
1. Ka whakarei ake te tukanga whakairoiro i te mahi a ngā rauemi
Ka hurihia te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia hei kāwhata tioata-teitei mā te maimoatanga pāmahana teitei (neke atu i te 2,800°C), ka whakapai ake i tōna kawe hiko, tōna pumau, me tōna roanga huringa. Hei tauira:
- Pūhiko Mata a BYD: Mā te whakamahi i te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia hei rauemi anode, me te katote phosphate rino lithium, ka eke ki te kiato pūngao teitei (neke atu i te 30% te pikinga o te rokiroki pūngao mō ia wae rōrahi), he roa te ora huringa (neke atu i te 2,000 ngā huringa utu-tuku), me te haumaru tino pai (ka paahitia ngā whakamātautau werohanga whao me te kore e mura).
- Te Pūhiko 4680 a Tesla: Nā te nui o te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia i roto i tōna rauemi anode, ka tautokohia e ia ngā āheinga utu tere kaha-teitei (utu ki te 80% i roto i te 15 meneti) me te mahi pāmahana iti tino pai (pupuri kaha neke atu i te 90% i te -20°C).
2. Ka tautokohia e te Painga Utu-iti ngā tono Tauine-Nui
He whānuitia ngā rauemi mata o te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia (hei hua taha o te whakamahine hinu), ko te utu he kotahi hautoru ki te haurua noa iho o te utu o te kāwhata tūturu, ā, kua pakari te hangarau tukatuka, ka taea te whakaiti i te utu o ngā rauemi anode. Hei tauira: - I te tau 2025, e matapaetia ana ko te utu toharite mō te kōka hinu iti-whāwhā i Haina ka tata ki te 1,841 yuan ia tana, ko ngā utu mō te karāpeti taiao kounga teitei ka neke atu i te 5,000 yuan ia tana.
- Kua whakaitihia e BYD te utu o tana Pūhiko Blade mā te 15%-20% mā te hoko nui i te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia, kia pai ake ai tōna whakataetae ki te mākete.
II. Ahu Mākete: Ko te Hiahia Pāpāho i roto i te Rāngai Pūngao Hou e Ārahi ana i te Taurite Paku o te Tuku me te Hiahia
1. Te Pikinga o te Hiahia mō ngā Pūhiko Hiko
E matapaetia ana ka neke atu i te 30 miriona waeine ngā hokonga o te ao mō ngā waka hiko hou i te tau 2025, ka piki ake tēnei i te 40% te hiahia mō ngā pākahiko hiko.
Hei rauemi matua mō ngā rauemi anode, kei te piki haere te hiahia mō te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia. Hei tauira:
- E 600 tāne o te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia te rahi e hiahiatia ana mō ia GWh o ngā pākahiko lithium, ā, e matapaetia ana ka eke te hiahia o te ao mō te rāngai pākahiko hiko ki te 1.2 miriona tāne i te tau 2025.
- Neke atu i te 60,000 tāne o te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia te hiahiatia mō te wheketere o Tesla i Shanghai, me te kaha whakaputa ā-tau kua whakapiki ake ki te 1 miriona waeine.
2. Ka Puta te Mākete Rokiroki Pūngao hei Pou Tipu Hou
E matapaetia ana ka eke te kaha rokiroki pūngao kua tāutahia o te ao ki te 500 GWh i te tau 2025, ā, neke atu i te 80% o ngā pākahiko lithium-ion.
Nā te nui o te whai huatanga o te utu, neke atu i te 70% te tere urunga o te kōka hinu kua whakakāwhatia ki roto i ngā rauemi anode o ngā pākahiko rokiroki pūngao, ā, kua noho hei kaupapa matua mō te whakawhānui ake e ngā kamupene pēnei i a CATL me LG Energy Solution.
III. Ahumahi Ahumahi: Te Whakaurunga o te Mekameka Tuku me te Tahora Tere e Ārahihia ana e te Kaupapa Here
1. Te Whakaurunga Poutū o ngā Mekameka Tuku e ngā Hinonga Ārahi
- BYD: Mā te haumi ki ngā umanga waro (pēnei i te haumi i te 1 piriona yuan hei hanga i tētahi kaupapa whakauru anode), kua mau tonu i a ia te kaha whakaputa kounga teitei o te coke hinu kua whakakāwhatia, ka piki ake ana tawhē hua mā te 8 ōrau.
- Tesla: Kua hainatia e ia ngā whakaaetanga roa me ngā kaiwhakarato kōka hinu iti-whanariki o te ao (pērā i ērā i te Hononga o Amerika me te Netherlands) kia mau ai te tuku rauemi mata.
2. Ka Whakawāteahia e ngā Wehenga Kaupapahere ngā Huarahi Ahumahi
Nā te rautaki "waro rua" a Haina i akiaki te pahūtanga o te umanga pūngao hou, me te rahi o te mākete o te umanga kōka hinu e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te $26.67 piriona i te tau 2025, me te pikinga o te ōwehenga o te kōka hinu iti-whāwhā ki te 45% (e whakamahia ana i roto i ngā rauemi anode kounga teitei).
Nā ngā kaupapa here taiao pakari ake (pēnei i te "Mahere Whakahaere mō te Whakamahinga o te Coke Hinu i ngā Rohe Matua") kua tere ake te whakakotahitanga o ngā ahumahi, me ngā umanga matua e whakakotahi ana i ō rātou tūranga mākete mā te whakapai ake i ā rātou hangarau (pēnei i te rokiroki me te kawe waka kua katihia me ngā pūnaha tango puehu tino whai hua) kia tutuki ai ngā whakaritenga waro-iti.
IV. Ngā Auahatanga o te Ao: Te Whakahoutanga Hangarau me te Whakapai Ahumahi
1. Te Whakaurunga Āta o ngā Rauemi Anode e Hangai ana ki te Silicon
Ka whakaranua te kōke hinu kua whakakākahuria ki ngā rauemi kei runga i te silicon (pērā i ngā anode silicon-waro) hei whakanui ake i te mātotoru o te pūngao pākahiko (neke atu i te 400 Wh/kg te uara ariā), hei whakatutuki i ngā hiahia o ngā mākete utu nui.
E matapaetia ana ka eke te ōwehenga o ngā rauemi anode e hangai ana ki te silicon ki te 10% i te tau 2025, ka akiaki i te tipu hanganga o te tono mō te coke hinu kua whakakāwhatia.
2. Te Whakateretere i te Tahora Ao
Mā te hanganga o te kaha whakaputa anode ki tāwāhi (pērā i te tono tāpiri mō te 600,000 ki te 700,000 tana o te coke hinu iti-whanariki e tumanakohia ana i te tau 2026-2027) ka akiaki i te whakawhānui ake i ngā kaweake o ngā umanga coke hinu graphitized Hainamana, ka hanga he painga whakataetae mekameka katoa o "ngā tono tukatuka rauemi mata."
Whakamutunga
Kua riro te kōka hinu kua whakakākāhia hei rauemi "koura mangu" e rapuhia ana e ngā kaihanga pākahiko taumata teitei nā te mea he pai te mahi hangarau, he pai te utu, me te mahi tahi a te ahumahi. I te haere tonu o te whānui o te umanga pūngao hou, ka whakapūmautia tōna tūranga mākete, me ngā whakahoutanga hangarau me ngā tahora o te ao hei mea nui ki te whakataetae hinonga.
Wā tuku: Hakihea-08-2025