I raro i te whakaohooho rua o te whakaoranga o te tono me te whakararuraru i te mekameka tuku, i piki ake ngā utu konumohe ki te taumata teitei rawa atu i roto i ngā tau 13. I taua wā anō, kua rerekē ngā whakaaro o ngā umanga mō te ahunga whakamua o te umanga. E whakapono ana ētahi kaitātari ka piki tonu ngā utu konumohe. Ā, kua tīmata ētahi umanga ki te tuku whakatūpato i te mākete pea, me te kī kua tae mai te tihi.
I te piki haere tonu o ngā utu konumohe, kua whakapiki ake a Goldman Sachs me Citigroup i ā rāua tumanakohanga mō ngā utu konumohe. Ko te whakatau tata a Citigroup, i roto i ngā marama e toru e whai ake nei, ka piki pea ngā utu konumohe ki te US$2,900/tana, ā, ka piki pea ngā utu konumohe 6-12-marama ki te US$3,100/tana, i te mea ka huri ngā utu konumohe mai i te mākete puru hurihuri ki te mākete puru hanganga. Ko te utu toharite o te konumohe e matapaetia ana ko te US$2,475/tana i te tau 2021 me te US$3,010/tana i te tau e tū mai nei.
E whakapono ana a Goldman Sachs tera pea ka heke te tirohanga mō te mekameka tuku taonga o te ao, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te utu o te konumohe ā-mua, ā, ka whakapikihia te utu whainga mō te konumohe ā-mua mō ngā marama 12 e whai ake nei ki te US$3,200/tana.
Hei tāpiritanga, i kōrero anō te tumuaki ōhanga o Trafigura Group, he kamupene hokohoko taonga o te ao, ki ngā pāpāho i te Tūrei ka piki tonu ngā utu konumohe ki ngā taumata teitei rawa atu i runga i te horopaki o te kaha o te tono me te hōhonu haere o ngā hapa whakaputa.
Reo whakaaro nui
Engari i taua wā anō, ka tīmata te karanga a ētahi atu reo kia marino te mākete. I kī te tangata e tika ana mō te China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association i ngā wā tata nei, kāore pea e taea te pupuri i ngā utu konumohe teitei tonu, ā, e toru ngā mōrearea nui kāore i te tautokona, e rua hoki ngā mōrearea nui.
I kī te kaiwhakahaere ko ngā āhuatanga kāore e tautoko i te pikinga tonu o ngā utu konumohe ko: kāore he hapa kitea o te tuku konumohe hikohiko, ā, kei te whakapau kaha te umanga katoa ki te whakarite kia tukuna; ko te pikinga o ngā utu whakaputa konumohe hikohiko kāore i te teitei pērā i te pikinga o te utu; kāore te kai o nāianei i te pai ki te tautoko i ēnei utu konumohe teitei.
I tua atu, i kōrero anō ia mō te mōrearea o te whakatikatika mākete. I mea ia nā te pikinga nui o ngā utu konumohe i tēnei wā kua tino pōuri ngā kamupene tukatuka konumohe o raro. Mēnā ka hinga rawa ngā ahumahi o raro, ahakoa ka aukatihia te kai o te konumohe e ngā utu teitei, ka wātea mai he rauemi rerekē, ka whakakorikori i te pūtake mō te pikinga utu, ā, ka tere hoki te hoki whakamuri o te utu ki te taumata teitei i roto i te wā poto, ka hanga he mōrearea pūnaha.
I kōrero anō hoki te kaiwhakahaere mō te pānga o te whakakaha o ngā kaupapa here moni a ngā peeke matua o te ao ki ngā utu konumohe. I mea ia ko te taiao whakangāwari moni kāore i kitea i mua te pūtake o tēnei huringa o ngā utu taonga, ā, ina memeha haere te tai o te moni, ka tūpono hoki ngā utu taonga ki ngā mōrearea pūnaha nui.
E whakaae ana hoki a Jorge Vazquez, te kaiwhakahaere matua o Harbor Intelligence, he kamupene tohutohu o Amerika, ki te whakaaro o te China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. I mea ia kua hipa te tono mō te konumohe i tōna tihi huringa.
"E kite ana mātou i te ngoikore haere o te tono hanganga i Haina (mō te konumohe)", kei te piki haere te mōrearea o te hokinga whakamuri o te ahumahi, ā, tera pea ka tere te hinga o ngā utu konumohe, te kī a Vazquez i te huihuinga ahumahi i Harbor i te Rāpare.
Kua ara ake ngā āwangawanga mō te whakararuraru i te mekameka tuku bauxite i te mākete o te ao nā te hurihanga o Guinea. Heoi, kua kī ngā tohunga o te umanga bauxite o te whenua, kāore pea te hurihanga e pā nui ki ngā kaweake mō te wā poto.
Wā tuku: Hepetema-13-2021