Te Tātari i ngā Auahatanga Utu me ngā Take Matua e Awe ana i te Coke Hinu Whakapūkara (Mai i te Tirohanga o te Tau 2025)
I. Ngā Auahatanga Utu: Te Pikinga Poto, Whai Aru Mai Ko te Rerekētanga, Tautokona Mo Te Wā Roa e te Āputa Tuku-Tono
1. Te Mahi Utu i te tau 2025
- Ko te kōka iti-whāwhā te kaiārahi i te pikinga: Nā te pikinga o te tono mō ngā rauemi anode i roto i ngā waka pūngao hou, i piki tere ngā utu o te kōka iti-whāwhā i te tīmatanga o te tau 2025. Hei tauira, i piki te utu o te kōka iti-whāwhā mai i Fushun Petrochemical mai i te 3,000 yuan/tana i te Hakihea 2024 ki te 3,500 yuan/tana i te Hanuere 2025, me ētahi utu hokohoko neke atu i te 4,200 yuan/tana.
- Ko te kōka whanariki waenga-ki-teitei te whai i tēnei: Ko te utu mō te kōka whanariki waenga-i waenga i waenga i te 2,400 me te 2,900 yuan/tana, ko te kōka whanariki teitei ia i waenga i te 1,300 ki te 1,800 yuan/tana. Ahakoa he iti ake te pikinga i tō te kōka whanariki iti-i waenga, i whakaatuhia he ia pikinga whānui.
- E tautokona ana e te rerekētanga o te tono me te tuku: E matapaetia ana ka ārahi te utu toharite ā-tau ki te awhe o te 3,000–4,000 yuan/tana e te rerekētanga o te tono me te tuku o te 870,000 tana i te tau 2025.
2. Te tirohanga mō te tau 2026
- Te pikinga utu taurite: E matapaetia ana ka whakawhāitihia te rerekētanga o te tuku me te tono ki te 660,000 tana, engari e matapaetia ana ka piki te wāhanga o te tono pūngao hou ki te 21%, ka pana i te utu toharite ā-tau ki te awhe o te 3,200–4,200 yuan/tana, me te iti-whāwhā coke ka neke atu pea i te 4,000 yuan/tana.
- Te rerekētanga hanganga: Ka noho iti tonu ngā utu o te kōka he nui te whanariki nā te nui o te tuku, ka rerekē i waenga i te 1,500–2,000 yuan/tana.
II. Ngā Take Matua e Āwhina ana: He Taunekeneke Tapatoru o te Tono, te Tuku, me te Kaupapahere
1. Te taha tono: Te tipu hanganga i arahina e te huringa pūngao hou
- Ngā rauemi anode pākahiko lithium-ion: I te tau 2024, ko te tono mō ngā rauemi anode he 8% o te katoa o te whakamahinga o te coke hinu, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake tēnei wāhanga ki te 11% i te tau 2026. Ko ngā tāpiringa kaha hou i roto i ngā rāngai waka pūngao hou me te rokiroki pūngao e neke atu ana i te 5.96 miriona tana/tau ka whakapiki tika i te tono mō te coke iti-whanariki.
- Te ngoikore o ngā rāngai tuku iho: Kei te puhoi tonu te tono i roto i ngā rāngai waro me te wahie, me te iti o te mana hoko nā te iti o te hua. Hei tauira, i whakaitihia e ngā umanga waro te hoko i waenga i te ngoikore o te tono a te umanga konumohe (me te whakatikatika i ngā utu konumohe i te tau 2025), i te wā i whakakapia ai e te rāngai wahie te kōka wahie whanariki nui ki te waro iti ake te utu (tata ki te 500 yuan/tana i te tau 2025).
2. Taha Tuku: Te Tipu o te Kaha Whakaiti me ngā Pēhanga Utu
- Te puhoi o te whakawhānui i te kaha o te whare: Kāore he waeine kōka hou kua whakaroahia e whakamaheretia ana mō te tau 2025, ā, kua heke ngā reiti mahi i ngā whare whakaputa hinu motuhake nā te pikinga ake o ngā tariff kawemai (e whai mana ana i te 1 o Hānuere, 2025), ā, ko ngā whare whakaputa hinu kei Shandong te wāhi e tino heke ana, e whakawhāiti ana i te putanga o te whare.
- Te korenga o te tuku mai i tāwāhi: He iti noa te hanga kōka iti-whanariki i Ūropi me te Hononga o Amerika nā te nui o te ihirangi whanariki i roto i te hinu mata, ā, ka nui tonu te whakawhirinaki ki ngā kawemai.
3. Taha Kaupapa Here: Ngā Here Takirua mai i ngā Kaupapa Here Taiao me te Tauhokohoko
- Ngā herenga whakaputa taiao: Kua piki ake te hiahia mō te kōka hinu iti-whanariki (me te ihirangi whanariki <0.5%) nā te mea e tutuki ana i ngā paerewa taiao, i te mea kua pāngia ngā ahumahi waro-nui pērā i te konumohe hiko e ngā whakahekenga whakaputa i raro i ngā herenga kaupapa here, ā, ka pā kino ki te hiahia mō te kōka hinu.
- Ngā taupatupatu hokohoko: Ahakoa ka pā te puhoi o te tono mākete o te ao, te pikinga rānei o ngā utu whakawhiti moni ki ngā utu o roto, kua piki tika ngā utu mō ngā kaihanga hinu motuhake nā te whakarerekētanga o te tari utu wahie o te tau 2025, ā, kua noho hei take matua mō te whakahekenga o te tuku.
4. Te taha utu: Te tuku i ngā piki me ngā heke o te utu hinu mata
- Te ngoikore o te tautoko utu: E matapaetia ana ko te utu toharite o te hinu mata o Brent ka eke ki te 67/paera i te tau 2025, ā, tera pea ka heke ki te 51/paera i te tau 2026 (matapae EIA), ka pehi i te pikinga o te utu o te hinu kōka.
- Ngā whanaketanga hua o te whare whakarewa hinu: Ina teitei ngā utu hinu mata, ka whakanuia e ngā kaihanga whakarewa te whakaputanga hinu māmā mā te whakaroa i te tunu, ka whakapiki ake i te tuku hinu kōka hinu. I tetahi atu taha, ka huri te kōka hinu hei tāpiringa hua, ka tautoko i ngā utu.
III. Ngā Tūponotanga me ngā Huarahi ā-Māui
1. Ngā Mōrearea Kino
- Te hekenga ohorere o ngā utu hinu o te ao: Mēnā ka heke te utu toharite o te hinu mata o Brent i raro iho i te $50/peera, ka heke pea ngā utu o te kōka hinu.
- Te ngoikore o te tono i te hekenga iho i tērā i whakaarohia: Ka taea e te nui rawa o te kaha o ngā rauemi anode pākahiko lithium-ion, te whakahekenga nui rānei i te hanga konumohe hikohiko te whakaiti i te tono.
2. Ngā Mōrearea o te Pikinga
- Te whakahekenga atu i ngā mahi whakaputa i ngā whare whakaputa motuhake: Mena ka heke ngā reiti mahi i ngā whare whakaputa motuhake o Shandong ki raro iho i te 50%, ka piki ake pea ngā utu i te whakahekenga o te tuku.
- Te tono mō te pūngao hou, he kaha ake i te mea i whakaarohia: Mēnā ka piki te wāhanga o ngā rauemi anode pākahiko lithium-ion ki te 15%, ka neke atu pea ngā utu mō te coke hinu kounga teitei i te 4,500 yuan/tana.
IV. Whakamutunga: Ngā Huarahi Hanganga i waenganui i te Hurihuri Nui
E matapaetia ana ka noho tonu te pikinga o ngā utu o te kōka hinu kua whakakāhia ki te graphite i roto i ngā tau e rua e whai ake nei, me te kōka iti-whāwhā e puta ake ana hei pūtake tipu matua nā te tono pūngao hou, engari ko te kōka waenga-ki-teitei ka kite i te pikinga iti nā ngā hau ārai i roto i ngā rāngai tuku iho. Me aro turuki tata ngā kaipupuri moni:
- Ngā whanaketanga i roto i te rāngai pūngao hou (hei tauira, te hoko waka hiko, te whakatinanatanga o ngā kaupapa rokiroki pūngao);
- ngā reiti whakahaere o ngā whare whakapai hinu ā-rohe (ina koa ko ngā huringa kaupapa here e pā ana ki ngā kaihanga whakapai hinu motuhake);
- Ngā piki me ngā heke o ngā utu hinu o te ao (ngā pānga tuku utu);
- Te kaha o te whakatinanatanga o ngā kaupapa here taiao (e pā ana ki te tuku me te tono).
I runga i te āhua o ngā whāinga "waro rua" a Haina me te whakawhiti pūngao, kei te huri haere te mākete kōka hinu kua whakakākahuria mai i te wahie tuku iho ki ngā rauemi pūngao hou, ā, ko te korenga o te kōka iti-whāwhā e whakarato ana i te manawanui utu mō te wā roa.
Wā tuku: Whiringa-ā-rangi 14-2025